Forecasts are always a dangerous thing. And I really hope this is wrong. But it sure looks like the film’s box office, disastrously low in September, will be stuck at the bottom again this month.

September is rarely a great month for ticket sales, but last month’s best not to be discussed. Putting aside Covid’s first year, 2020, when theaters were mostly closed, this year’s September takings of around $ 319 million were the worst in recent memory. The monthly total fell more than 13% from last year and was less than half the month’s box office in 2019. It has ranked as the lowest since 1996, when ticket sales were just $ 303.6 million. , according to the numbers so conveniently cut and diced by Box Office Mojo.

And this without adjusting to the inflation of the ticket price. Adjust numbers and performance this September, led by approximately $ 41.5 million in monthly sales per The woman kingin reality it was much worse, matching the lows in the 1980s, when the month was treated as a landfill for the unavailable and a convenient receptacle for summer fallout.

Now, with the collapse of siblings and the mediocre performance of the horror film Smilethe industry is marching in mid-October with its prospects hanging from a modest Sony baby photo, Lyle, Lyle, crocodileand a tough dark comedy from 20th Century / Disney, Amsterdam.

As Deadline’s Anthony D’Alessandro politely suggested in his box office preview, “Hopefully, something will go further this weekend.”

But even if that happens, we could set another 26-year low, barely beating $ 314.3 million in 1996, when October’s best-selling film was a leftover from September. First wives clubwith approximately $ 51.7 million in tickets sold for the month.

Black Adamscheduled for October 21 by Warner, it could throw $ 100 million in the monthly bucket, but only if it opens like its DC predecessor Shazam !, which had $ 53.5 million in sales in the first weekend in April 2019.

It could happen, or Halloween endsdue to expire on October 14 from Universal, it could equal the nearly $ 86 million collected since October Halloween kills in 2021.

OR Devil’s prey of Lionsgate, scheduled for release on October 28, could somehow cram a week of sales into those last four days of the month.

OR Ticket to heaven it could become the first George Clooney film to suddenly explode since then Severityin 2013. It’s possible.

But there’s no promise of an October blockbuster, like Venom: Let there be carnage or There is no time to die in 2021. Instead, the release schedule is littered with tough little films of the kind that light up festivals, win awards, and make critics fight –, Till, The Swimmer, Call Jane, The Banshees of Inisherin, Armageddon Time and the like.

These are films for insiders, to which outsiders, mass consumers, are invited in a very limited way. This is how the game of the season is played now.

So it looks like another tough month for the industry, aiming for half or less revenue in October 2019, when Joker led the field, or 2018, when Poison was on top.

Unless, hopefully, as Deadline box office expert D’Alessandro puts it, “something outperforms”.

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